Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Peca on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Peca wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Peca 48.3% vs Dowd 51.6% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 57.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 68.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Peca
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Peca
Dowd
Last 5: Peca 4-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Peca
1
0
Peca
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Peca
3
1
Peca
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Peca
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (149)
51.2% (381)
-2.2%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
100.0% (2)
-100.0%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
53.9% (89)
-17.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Peca is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Peca shoots left. Dowd is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Peca
Dowd
Home
48.2% (85)
54.6% (218)
Away
46.4% (84)
49.6% (254)
By Period
Peca
Dowd
P1
55.4%
50.6%
P2
39.7%
55.1%
P3
49.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Peca
46.0%▼
49.5%
47.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2018 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 12:45 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Matthew Peca |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 1 | 02:28 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |