Scouting Report
Michael Chaput holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Chaput wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chaput 51.5% vs Rask 50.1% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Rask leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Rask 74.1%
Defensive zone
Chaput 65.4%
Neutral zone
Rask 56.5%
Result
Victor Rask favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Chaput
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Chaput
Rask
Last 10: Chaput 5-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
0
3
Chaput
Rask
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rask
2
4
Chaput
Rask
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Chaput
3
2
Chaput
Rask
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chaput
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (1,168)
50.0% (4,428)
+2.2%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
54.3% (363)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (70)
35.2% (54)
+7.7%
On power play, Rask has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Chaput is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (804).
Chaput shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
Chaput
Rask
Home
53.5% (602)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
49.8% (650)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Chaput
Rask
P1
48.6%
50.7%
P2
51.6%
48.9%
P3
54.5%
50.7%
Final 5 min
52.6%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chaput
56.0%▲
46.5%
51.6%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2021 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |
| Mar 12, 2021 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Dec 13, 2018 | 1 | 01:56 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |
| Nov 7, 2014 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 7, 2014 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 08:25 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Victor Rask |