Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Raffl wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raffl 49.7% vs Thompson 52.9% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Raffl 86.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 70.4%
Neutral zone
Raffl 62.3%
Result
Michael Raffl favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Raffl
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Raffl
Thompson
Last 10: Raffl 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Raffl
2
0
Raffl
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
4
Raffl
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Raffl
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raffl
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (597)
54.1% (5,812)
-5.0%
Power Play
48.1% (27)
54.8% (135)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
58.5% (41)
47.9% (1,381)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Raffl has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Raffl is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (438).
Raffl shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Raffl
Thompson
Home
51.1% (305)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
48.3% (360)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Raffl
Thompson
P1
51.6%
53.2%
P2
48.4%
52.9%
P3
49.2%
52.8%
OT
0.0%
47.9%
Final 5 min
48.3%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raffl
56.0%▲
50.5%
49.6%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 08:11 | Offensive | Michael Raffl |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Michael Raffl |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 1 | 15:56 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 1 | 04:43 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 14:47 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 3 | 07:54 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Michael Raffl |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 2 | 02:16 | Neutral | Michael Raffl |