Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Handzus on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Handzus shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Handzus 51.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Handzus leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Handzus 55.9%
Defensive zone
Handzus 77.4%
Neutral zone
Handzus 64.9%
Result
Michal Handzus favored at 66.7%
33.3%
66.7%
Pavelski
Handzus
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
Pavelski
Handzus
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Handzus
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Handzus
2
6
Pavelski
Handzus
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
4
Pavelski
Handzus
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Handzus
2
4
Pavelski
Handzus
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Handzus
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.5% (2,438)
+2.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
58.0% (286)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
47.3% (471)
+3.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Handzus shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Handzus is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,055).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Handzus
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.2% (1,736)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.6% (1,481)
By Period
Pavelski
Handzus
P1
53.5%
52.5%
P2
55.2%
53.7%
P3
53.9%
48.4%
OT
52.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Handzus
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2014 | 3 | 16:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2014 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Michal Handzus |
| Apr 4, 2011 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Michal Handzus |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 12:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Michal Handzus |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Michal Handzus |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 16:07 | Offensive | Michal Handzus |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Michal Handzus |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 09:06 | Neutral | Michal Handzus |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Michal Handzus |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Michal Handzus |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Michal Handzus |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Michal Handzus |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 1 | 19:56 | Defensive | Michal Handzus |
| Dec 27, 2010 | 3 | 16:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2010 | 2 | 08:24 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2010 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |