Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Shaw on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Shaw wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 44.1% vs Backlund 47.7% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 51.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 83.8%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Shaw
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Shaw
Backlund
Last 7: Shaw 5-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Shaw
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
2
0
Shaw
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
3
0
Shaw
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (636)
47.2% (1,002)
-3.3%
Power Play
32.4% (37)
46.7% (150)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
50.0% (170)
-4.5%
On power play, Backlund has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Shaw is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (469).
Shaw shoots right. Backlund is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (558).
Home / Away
Shaw
Backlund
Home
46.3% (363)
48.3% (633)
Away
39.9% (321)
46.7% (689)
By Period
Shaw
Backlund
P1
47.4%
49.2%
P2
43.0%
48.9%
P3
40.0%
45.4%
OT
46.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.8%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2014 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 3, 2013 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 3, 2013 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 3, 2013 | 1 | 08:33 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 3, 2013 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |