Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.0% vs 47.5%). Roy wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.5% vs Backlund 47.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 88.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 60.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 60.1%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Roy
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Roy
Backlund
Last 6: Roy 5-1 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (351)
47.2% (1,002)
-4.2%
Power Play
61.3% (106)
46.7% (150)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
50.0% (170)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Roy is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (306).
Roy shoots left. Backlund is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Roy
Backlund
Home
52.3% (241)
48.3% (633)
Away
41.3% (225)
46.7% (689)
By Period
Roy
Backlund
P1
51.6%
49.2%
P2
46.4%
48.9%
P3
43.1%
45.4%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.9%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2014 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 2 | 11:34 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 09:02 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 9, 2014 | 1 | 04:57 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 23, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |