Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Roy wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 45.3% vs Backlund 48.5% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 84.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 54.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 59.8%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Roy
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
12
(15 meetings)
3
12
Roy
Backlund
Last 10: Roy 2-8 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
4
Roy
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Roy
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
6
Roy
Backlund
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (784)
50.1% (711)
-5.3%
Power Play
45.0% (111)
43.2% (81)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (14)
38.6% (83)
+4.3%
On even strength, Backlund has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Roy is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Roy shoots left. Backlund is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Roy
Backlund
Home
45.8% (421)
51.0% (396)
Away
43.9% (488)
46.1% (479)
By Period
Roy
Backlund
P1
44.9%
43.9%
P2
43.6%
51.5%
P3
46.4%
51.0%
OT
35.3%
12.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
44.8%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 02:56 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 13:21 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 13:13 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 03:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |