Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 47.2%). Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Ward wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Backlund 47.4% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 56.3%
Defensive zone
Ward 54.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.5%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Ward
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Ward
Backlund
Last 9: Ward 6-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
2
1
Ward
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
4
0
Ward
Backlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Ward
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (353)
48.7% (912)
+0.6%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
46.3% (82)
+22.7%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (98)
38.3% (149)
-3.6%
On power play, Ward has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Ward is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (338).
Ward shoots right. Backlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Ward
Backlund
Home
48.4% (219)
48.2% (596)
Away
47.8% (274)
46.1% (547)
By Period
Ward
Backlund
P1
43.0%
49.3%
P2
51.4%
44.7%
P3
50.0%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
72.7%
Final 5 min
41.8%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2016 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 11, 2016 | 2 | 14:31 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 11, 2016 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 11, 2016 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 28, 2015 | 1 | 06:51 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Nov 28, 2015 | 1 | 03:53 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |