Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Modano on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Modano 48.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 80.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 68.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Modano
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Modano
O'Reilly
Last 7: Modano 4-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Modano
2
1
Modano
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Modano
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Modano
2
0
Modano
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Modano
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (266)
56.2% (15,103)
-8.5%
Power Play
100.0% (5)
58.7% (3,395)
+41.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
51.6% (2,769)
-51.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +51.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Modano is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Modano shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Modano
O'Reilly
Home
51.1% (139)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
45.9% (135)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Modano
O'Reilly
P1
52.6%
55.5%
P2
42.3%
57.0%
P3
51.9%
55.2%
OT
0.0%
62.7%
Final 5 min
42.2%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Modano
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.5%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2010 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 15:44 | Offensive | Mike Modano |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Mike Modano |
| Oct 12, 2010 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Mike Modano |
| Oct 12, 2010 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2010 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2010 | 1 | 07:35 | Neutral | Mike Modano |