Scouting Report
Matt Ellis holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ribeiro on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ellis wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Ribeiro shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 49.2% vs Ribeiro 43.6% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ribeiro 86.1%
Defensive zone
Ellis 81.5%
Neutral zone
Ellis 64.3%
Result
Mike Ribeiro favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
Ellis
Ribeiro
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Ellis
Ribeiro
Last 6: Ellis 3-3 Ribeiro
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ribeiro
1
3
Ellis
Ribeiro
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
2
0
Ellis
Ribeiro
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Ribeiro
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (170)
42.7% (1,121)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (35)
16.7% (6)
+23.3%
On penalty kill, Ellis has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ribeiro shoots left. Ellis is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (125).
Ellis shoots left. Ribeiro is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Ellis
Ribeiro
Home
47.8% (113)
44.9% (710)
Away
50.0% (92)
41.2% (638)
By Period
Ellis
Ribeiro
P1
61.3%
43.8%
P2
45.9%
44.6%
P3
35.9%
40.3%
Final 5 min
45.0%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
43.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 10:28 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |