Scouting Report
Mike Richards holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Richards wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 53.5% vs O'Reilly 51.4% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 59.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Richards
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Richards
O'Reilly
Last 6: Richards 2-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Richards
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Richards
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (752)
51.5% (194)
+1.7%
Power Play
56.5% (85)
52.3% (107)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
58.6% (70)
51.4% (70)
+7.2%
On penalty kill, Richards has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Richards is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (590).
Richards shoots left. O'Reilly is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Richards
O'Reilly
Home
57.0% (444)
50.3% (185)
Away
51.0% (463)
53.2% (186)
By Period
Richards
O'Reilly
P1
53.4%
51.0%
P2
55.8%
48.9%
P3
51.9%
53.3%
OT
66.7%
68.8%
Final 5 min
50.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
53.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2014 | 2 | 01:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 26, 2014 | 1 | 17:16 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 04:49 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 01:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |