Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.3% vs 53.1%). Look for Vilardi on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Vilardi wins 59.0% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 51.6% vs Koivu 52.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 59.2%
Defensive zone
Koivu 67.9%
Neutral zone
Koivu 50.5%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Vilardi
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Vilardi
Koivu
Last 6: Vilardi 3-3 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
1
Vilardi
Koivu
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Vilardi
Koivu
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vilardi
2
1
Vilardi
Koivu
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (84)
53.9% (592)
-3.9%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
54.2% (96)
+31.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
48.8% (123)
+51.2%
On penalty kill, Vilardi has a +51.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Vilardi is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Vilardi shoots right. Koivu is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Koivu
Home
52.9% (87)
52.8% (386)
Away
60.0% (5)
53.4% (425)
By Period
Vilardi
Koivu
P1
54.5%
51.7%
P2
60.7%
54.8%
P3
45.2%
53.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
53.3%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 19:11 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 06:11 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 02:39 | Defensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 02:28 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |