Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Smithson wins 59.0% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.7% vs Koivu 54.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Koivu 71.2%
Defensive zone
Smithson 76.5%
Neutral zone
Smithson 50.3%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
Smithson
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Smithson
Koivu
Last 7: Smithson 4-3 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
3
Smithson
Koivu
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
4
0
Smithson
Koivu
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (175)
54.0% (948)
+5.4%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
58.7% (225)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
54.3% (138)
-1.7%
On power play, Smithson has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Smithson is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (134).
Smithson shoots right. Koivu is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Home / Away
Smithson
Koivu
Home
63.2% (106)
59.8% (669)
Away
53.6% (110)
49.7% (642)
By Period
Smithson
Koivu
P1
69.6%
53.4%
P2
48.3%
56.2%
P3
57.4%
56.3%
OT
66.7%
36.7%
Final 5 min
64.4%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
58.3%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2013 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 13, 2013 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 13, 2013 | 3 | 00:34 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 13, 2013 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 13, 2013 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 13, 2013 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 13, 2013 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |