Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.1%). Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 50 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Koivu 54.0% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 92-78 in 170 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 54.6%
Defensive zone
Koivu 56.9%
Neutral zone
Koivu 50.6%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Duchene
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
92
-
78
(170 meetings)
92
78
Duchene
Koivu
Last 10: Duchene 3-7 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
26
29
Duchene
Koivu
55 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
31
19
Duchene
Koivu
50 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
35
30
Duchene
Koivu
65 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
54.0% (9,465)
-0.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
58.6% (2,100)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
48.9% (1,688)
+0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Koivu is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,701).
Home / Away
Duchene
Koivu
Home
55.6% (6,411)
55.8% (6,577)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
52.3% (6,719)
By Period
Duchene
Koivu
P1
54.5%
53.5%
P2
54.5%
54.6%
P3
53.4%
54.0%
OT
56.3%
56.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 2 | 18:21 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 03:19 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 18:59 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 1 | 06:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 3, 2019 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |