Scouting Report
Mikko Koivu holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Koivu wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Marleau shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Koivu 55.8% vs Marleau 50.7% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Koivu 82.1%
Defensive zone
Koivu 54.3%
Neutral zone
Koivu 79.7%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Koivu
Marleau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Koivu
Marleau
Last 7: Koivu 5-2 Marleau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Koivu
Marleau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Koivu
Marleau
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
3
0
Koivu
Marleau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Koivu
Marleau
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,247)
49.0% (437)
+7.6%
Power Play
61.6% (344)
70.6% (34)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (167)
53.7% (54)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Marleau has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marleau shoots left. Koivu is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,142).
Koivu shoots left. Marleau is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Koivu
Marleau
Home
58.1% (850)
55.1% (234)
Away
54.3% (908)
47.4% (291)
By Period
Koivu
Marleau
P1
55.3%
56.3%
P2
57.2%
48.5%
P3
55.1%
46.5%
OT
77.3%
83.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
56.1%
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2016 | 3 | 18:15 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Jan 23, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 3 | 13:12 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 12, 2015 | 3 | 09:40 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |