Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 81 meetings). Koivu wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Koivu 54.0% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 103-91 in 194 meetings
Offensive zone
Koivu 57.7%
Defensive zone
Koivu 55.9%
Neutral zone
Koivu 56.7%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Koivu
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
91
-
103
(194 meetings)
91
103
Koivu
O'Reilly
Last 10: Koivu 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
34
47
Koivu
O'Reilly
81 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
29
31
Koivu
O'Reilly
60 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
28
25
Koivu
O'Reilly
53 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Koivu
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,465)
56.2% (15,249)
-2.2%
Power Play
58.6% (2,100)
58.8% (3,443)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (1,688)
51.4% (2,806)
-2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Koivu is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,701).
Koivu shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,858).
Home / Away
Koivu
O'Reilly
Home
55.8% (6,577)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
52.3% (6,719)
54.4% (10,769)
By Period
Koivu
O'Reilly
P1
53.5%
55.6%
P2
54.6%
57.0%
P3
54.0%
55.0%
OT
56.5%
62.1%
Final 5 min
53.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.1%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 11:44 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 06:05 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 05:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 10:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 10:52 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 2 | 11:07 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 1 | 19:24 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 1 | 12:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 1 | 00:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |