Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 54.1%). Look for Koivu on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Koivu wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Koivu 54.0% vs Hertl 54.1% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 14-13 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 53.3%
Defensive zone
Koivu 55.9%
Neutral zone
Koivu 51.1%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Koivu
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
14
(27 meetings)
13
14
Koivu
Hertl
Last 10: Koivu 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Koivu
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
7
1
Koivu
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
7
Koivu
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Koivu
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,465)
53.6% (8,077)
+0.4%
Power Play
58.6% (2,100)
59.7% (1,916)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (1,688)
46.0% (793)
+2.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Koivu is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,701).
Koivu shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,755).
Home / Away
Koivu
Hertl
Home
55.8% (6,577)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
52.3% (6,719)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Koivu
Hertl
P1
53.5%
53.6%
P2
54.6%
53.9%
P3
54.0%
55.1%
OT
56.5%
46.8%
Final 5 min
53.4%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.1%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 17:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 19:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 3 | 04:42 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 3 | 02:00 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 10, 2017 | 2 | 01:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |