Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lucic on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Lucic wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lucic 46.6% vs Johansen 53.3% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 62.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 91.3%
Neutral zone
Johansen 81.8%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 75.6%
24.4%
75.6%
Lucic
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lucic
Johansen
Last 8: Lucic 5-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lucic
4
0
Lucic
Johansen
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Lucic
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Lucic
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lucic
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (401)
53.1% (11,017)
-8.7%
Power Play
49.5% (198)
56.2% (2,163)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
50.5% (978)
-17.2%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Lucic is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Lucic shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Home / Away
Lucic
Johansen
Home
48.3% (317)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
43.5% (285)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Lucic
Johansen
P1
41.3%
53.2%
P2
47.9%
53.9%
P3
50.3%
52.8%
OT
40.0%
58.2%
Final 5 min
42.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lucic
46.0%▬
45.5%
46.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2019 | 2 | 13:35 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 14, 2013 | OT | 03:31 | Defensive | Milan Lucic |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 07:44 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 05:27 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 04:01 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |