Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lucic wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lucic 46.6% vs Kesler 55.9% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Lucic 82.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 77.4%
Neutral zone
Lucic 55.3%
Result
Milan Lucic favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Lucic
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Lucic
Kesler
Last 10: Lucic 4-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lucic
4
1
Lucic
Kesler
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
5
Lucic
Kesler
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Lucic
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lucic
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (401)
56.4% (8,095)
-12.0%
Power Play
49.5% (198)
60.7% (1,437)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
50.5% (1,908)
-17.2%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Lucic is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Lucic shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Lucic
Kesler
Home
48.3% (317)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
43.5% (285)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Lucic
Kesler
P1
41.3%
56.5%
P2
47.9%
55.9%
P3
50.3%
56.1%
OT
40.0%
46.0%
Final 5 min
42.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lucic
46.0%▬
45.5%
46.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2019 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 18:31 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 03:57 | Defensive | Milan Lucic |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 2 | 09:28 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 5, 2016 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 28, 2016 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |
| Feb 4, 2014 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 3 | 04:36 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Milan Lucic |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |