Scouting Report
Mitch Marner holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Vrbata shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs Vrbata 40.9% (+4.7%)
Offensive zone
Vrbata 64.5%
Defensive zone
Marner 64.4%
Neutral zone
Marner 50.2%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Marner
Vrbata
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Vrbata
Edge
Even Strength
42.2% (462)
34.2% (184)
+8.0%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
45.2% (42)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
50.0% (14)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, Vrbata has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vrbata shoots right. Marner is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Marner shoots right. Vrbata is 35.3% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Home / Away
Marner
Vrbata
Home
38.2% (293)
32.3% (124)
Away
46.0% (252)
42.2% (116)
By Period
Marner
Vrbata
P1
39.1%
31.0%
P2
41.1%
38.5%
P3
47.1%
43.8%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
Vrbata
30.0%▼
36.0%
37.1%