Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 57.0% vs Thompson 51.7% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 54.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 76.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 65.1%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Duchene
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Duchene
Thompson
Last 5: Duchene 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Duchene
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (527)
53.2% (380)
+3.3%
Power Play
61.6% (185)
50.0% (16)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
59.3% (27)
45.5% (55)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Duchene shoots left. Thompson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (311).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thompson
Home
57.6% (403)
53.9% (243)
Away
58.3% (336)
50.0% (208)
By Period
Duchene
Thompson
P1
61.4%
46.9%
P2
58.5%
62.2%
P3
54.9%
47.5%
OT
40.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
62.1%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2016 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 03:49 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 03:15 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |