Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spaling on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thompson wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.5% vs Spaling 48.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spaling 79.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 59.1%
Neutral zone
Spaling 63.4%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Thompson
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Thompson
Spaling
Last 7: Thompson 2-5 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
0
1
Thompson
Spaling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
1
Thompson
Spaling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spaling
0
3
Thompson
Spaling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (870)
47.1% (155)
+7.3%
Power Play
45.8% (24)
50.0% (4)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (162)
60.0% (15)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Spaling has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Thompson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Thompson shoots left. Spaling is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Thompson
Spaling
Home
55.3% (510)
47.2% (108)
Away
50.4% (546)
50.0% (66)
By Period
Thompson
Spaling
P1
53.5%
43.6%
P2
52.2%
41.9%
P3
52.7%
59.3%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.5%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.7%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2014 | 3 | 16:47 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 3 | 13:36 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 2 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |