Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 21 meetings). Thompson wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs Stastny 55.1% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 26-22 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 79.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 72.5%
Neutral zone
Stastny 57.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Thompson
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
22
(48 meetings)
26
22
Thompson
Stastny
Last 10: Thompson 6-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
11
Thompson
Stastny
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
17
4
Thompson
Stastny
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
6
7
Thompson
Stastny
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
54.6% (10,616)
-0.5%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
59.1% (1,994)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (1,381)
52.9% (1,119)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Thompson shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Thompson
Stastny
Home
54.8% (3,626)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Thompson
Stastny
P1
53.2%
56.3%
P2
52.9%
55.4%
P3
52.8%
53.5%
OT
47.9%
62.9%
Final 5 min
51.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 01:44 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:28 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1 | 19:53 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1 | 19:47 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 1, 2019 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 1, 2019 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 1, 2019 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 1, 2019 | 1 | 10:02 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 1, 2019 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 1, 2019 | 1 | 06:06 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |