Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thompson wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs Donato 44.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 63.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 97.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 93.1%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Thompson
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Thompson
Donato
Last 5: Thompson 4-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
1
Thompson
Donato
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
44.2% (1,179)
+9.9%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
46.3% (246)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (1,381)
36.4% (11)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Thompson shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Home / Away
Thompson
Donato
Home
54.8% (3,626)
47.2% (743)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Thompson
Donato
P1
53.2%
43.4%
P2
52.9%
45.1%
P3
52.8%
44.4%
OT
47.9%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2019 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 20, 2019 | 1 | 12:57 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |