Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.2%). Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Thompson wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.5% vs Smith 51.9% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 63.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 63.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 60.4%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Thompson
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Thompson
Smith
Last 8: Thompson 5-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Thompson
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
4
2
Thompson
Smith
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (870)
53.7% (449)
+0.7%
Power Play
45.8% (24)
80.0% (10)
-34.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (162)
43.1% (102)
+2.0%
On power play, Smith has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Thompson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Thompson shoots left. Smith is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Thompson
Smith
Home
55.3% (510)
55.0% (280)
Away
50.4% (546)
49.5% (281)
By Period
Thompson
Smith
P1
53.5%
52.3%
P2
52.2%
52.1%
P3
52.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.7%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2015 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 14, 2015 | 2 | 04:32 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 16, 2014 | 3 | 08:35 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 16, 2014 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Dec 16, 2014 | 2 | 12:07 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 16, 2014 | 2 | 02:51 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 16, 2014 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 16, 2014 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |