Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Thompson wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Graovac shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 52.9% vs Graovac 47.1% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 67.3%
Defensive zone
Thompson 96.1%
Neutral zone
Thompson 85.2%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 82.6%
82.6%
17.4%
Thompson
Graovac
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Thompson
Graovac
Last 10: Thompson 6-4 Graovac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Graovac
1
2
Thompson
Graovac
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
0
Thompson
Graovac
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
5
2
Thompson
Graovac
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Graovac
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (5,812)
46.5% (497)
+7.6%
Power Play
54.8% (135)
50.0% (4)
+4.8%
On even strength, Thompson has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Graovac shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Thompson shoots left. Graovac is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (343).
Home / Away
Thompson
Graovac
Home
54.8% (3,626)
47.6% (233)
Away
51.1% (3,717)
45.5% (268)
By Period
Thompson
Graovac
P1
53.2%
41.7%
P2
52.9%
47.4%
P3
52.8%
51.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Graovac
48.0%▲
43.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2021 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| May 11, 2021 | 1 | 07:48 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| May 10, 2021 | 2 | 03:16 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| May 10, 2021 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Tyler Graovac |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Tyler Graovac |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 3 | 02:29 | Neutral | Tyler Graovac |
| Mar 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:12 | Offensive | Tyler Graovac |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:33 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |