Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.4% vs 46.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Roy
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Roy
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Roy
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
46.1% (11,218)
+0.3%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
53.3% (1,412)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
42.8% (502)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Roy shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Roy
MacKinnon
Home
49.5% (1,982)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Roy
MacKinnon
P1
47.6%
47.4%
P2
46.2%
46.6%
P3
48.5%
46.1%
OT
43.1%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 3 | 09:49 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 8, 2014 | 2 | 16:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |