Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 26-17 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 65.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 62.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
26
(43 meetings)
17
26
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKinnon 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
9
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
8
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
9
9
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
55.4% (826)
-5.4%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
57.9% (221)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.4% (129)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
53.3% (591)
55.8% (579)
Away
49.6% (581)
54.9% (597)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
49.9%
57.7%
P2
53.2%
54.8%
P3
50.8%
54.3%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 18:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 03:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:01 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |