Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 49.1% vs Dowd 48.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 76.2%
Defensive zone
Ward 63.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Ward
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Ward
Dowd
Last 7: Ward 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Ward
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
1
0
Ward
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Ward
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (339)
47.2% (608)
+5.6%
Power Play
48.5% (33)
53.1% (96)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
0.0% (3)
+33.3%
On penalty kill, Ward has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Ward is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Ward shoots right. Dowd is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Ward
Dowd
Home
53.4% (251)
48.7% (384)
Away
43.4% (205)
46.7% (323)
By Period
Ward
Dowd
P1
49.4%
50.2%
P2
46.9%
47.5%
P3
50.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
47.1%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2017 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 1 | 09:42 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 3 | 01:48 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2016 | 1 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |