Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.5% vs Kapanen 48.5% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 81.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 80.4%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 51.9%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Dowd
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Dowd
Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
0
1
Dowd
Kapanen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Kapanen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (485)
48.4% (450)
+5.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
54.1% (37)
-54.1%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (186)
37.5% (32)
+2.3%
On power play, Kapanen has a +54.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Dowd is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Dowd shoots right. Kapanen is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Dowd
Kapanen
Home
48.5% (307)
48.1% (266)
Away
50.3% (366)
48.2% (253)
By Period
Dowd
Kapanen
P1
50.7%
42.0%
P2
49.1%
52.9%
P3
49.6%
49.4%
OT
30.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Kapanen
58.0%▲
47.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 12:09 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:51 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |