Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 48.9%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Kelly wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 70.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 61.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.6%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Kelly
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
Kelly
Bjugstad
Last 10: Kelly 7-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Kelly
Bjugstad
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
2
Kelly
Bjugstad
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
0
Kelly
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
48.3% (937)
+1.7%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
56.1% (148)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
34.2% (38)
+10.7%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Kelly is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Kelly shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bjugstad
Home
51.4% (350)
50.5% (574)
Away
45.0% (229)
47.2% (549)
By Period
Kelly
Bjugstad
P1
46.9%
52.4%
P2
53.6%
46.8%
P3
46.8%
45.5%
OT
0.0%
78.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2014 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 9, 2014 | 3 | 02:26 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 9, 2014 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 2 | 11:44 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 07:55 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 07:41 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 7, 2013 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 14:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |