Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.9%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 68.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 58.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Kelly
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Kelly
Bjugstad
Last 7: Kelly 6-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
47.3% (806)
+2.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
55.0% (149)
-26.4%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
59.0% (39)
-13.5%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Kelly is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (210).
Kelly shoots left. Bjugstad is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bjugstad
Home
53.9% (297)
55.4% (446)
Away
42.1% (242)
43.6% (548)
By Period
Kelly
Bjugstad
P1
45.4%
49.4%
P2
46.1%
48.1%
P3
54.3%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
61.1%
Final 5 min
53.5%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 08:57 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 03:52 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 1 | 02:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |