Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 22-10 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 51.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 64.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 63.0%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Kelly
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
10
(32 meetings)
22
10
Kelly
Bjugstad
Last 10: Kelly 7-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Kelly
Bjugstad
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
8
3
Kelly
Bjugstad
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
8
1
Kelly
Bjugstad
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
48.6% (6,634)
+2.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
55.2% (829)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
44.3% (614)
+0.4%
On power play, Kelly has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bjugstad
Home
52.6% (1,965)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Kelly
Bjugstad
P1
49.2%
49.0%
P2
49.1%
49.1%
P3
51.9%
48.4%
OT
53.5%
61.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2017 | 3 | 04:25 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 2 | 09:13 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 2 | 08:57 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 06:25 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 3 | 03:52 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 4, 2014 | 1 | 02:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 9, 2014 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 9, 2014 | 3 | 02:26 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 9, 2014 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 1 | 04:48 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 2 | 11:44 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 16:23 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 07:55 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |