Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 66.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 72.8%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 83.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 65.7%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Toews
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Toews
Bjugstad
Last 5: Toews 2-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Toews
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
49.4% (867)
+11.7%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
56.0% (25)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
40.7% (216)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Toews is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (384).
Toews shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
Toews
Bjugstad
Home
64.8% (560)
46.5% (480)
Away
60.6% (381)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Toews
Bjugstad
P1
62.3%
48.7%
P2
63.9%
45.6%
P3
62.8%
49.1%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.9%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:09 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 15:01 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 08:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |