Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Erat wins 38.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 47.0% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 70.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 65.2%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 66.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Erat
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Erat
Bjugstad
Last 7: Erat 6-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Erat
2
0
Erat
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Erat
2
1
Erat
Bjugstad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Erat
2
0
Erat
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (180)
48.3% (937)
-3.9%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
56.1% (148)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (15)
34.2% (38)
+25.8%
On penalty kill, Erat has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Erat is 38.0% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Erat shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Erat
Bjugstad
Home
51.9% (129)
50.5% (574)
Away
35.7% (84)
47.2% (549)
By Period
Erat
Bjugstad
P1
44.4%
52.4%
P2
45.9%
46.8%
P3
47.2%
45.5%
OT
25.0%
78.3%
Final 5 min
52.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2014 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Feb 27, 2014 | 2 | 15:50 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | OT | 02:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 13, 2013 | 1 | 15:15 | Offensive | Martin Erat |