Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.9%). Look for Chaput on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Chaput wins 41.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chaput 49.0% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 67.8%
Defensive zone
Chaput 63.9%
Neutral zone
Chaput 51.2%
Result
Michael Chaput favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Chaput
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Chaput
Bjugstad
Last 8: Chaput 3-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Chaput
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chaput
3
1
Chaput
Bjugstad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Chaput
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chaput
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (273)
47.3% (806)
+1.1%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
55.0% (149)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (19)
59.0% (39)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Chaput is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Chaput shoots left. Bjugstad is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Home / Away
Chaput
Bjugstad
Home
47.0% (132)
55.4% (446)
Away
50.0% (162)
43.6% (548)
By Period
Chaput
Bjugstad
P1
41.8%
49.4%
P2
54.4%
48.1%
P3
47.5%
48.6%
Final 5 min
61.5%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chaput
56.0%▲
46.5%
48.6%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2014 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 2 | 13:50 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 1 | 10:09 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |