Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tuch on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tuch wins 37.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 45.3% vs Bonino 53.9% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tuch 82.4%
Defensive zone
Bonino 92.8%
Neutral zone
Bonino 74.5%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Tuch
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Tuch
Bonino
Last 5: Tuch 3-2 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
3
0
Tuch
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Tuch
Bonino
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Tuch
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
33.3% (81)
56.4% (771)
-23.1%
Power Play
50.6% (83)
60.0% (30)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.8% (169)
+56.2%
On penalty kill, Tuch has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Tuch is 37.2% vs left-shot opponents (129).
Tuch shoots right. Bonino is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Tuch
Bonino
Home
40.0% (90)
56.5% (531)
Away
45.3% (75)
51.7% (439)
By Period
Tuch
Bonino
P1
51.1%
56.7%
P2
40.6%
48.1%
P3
37.3%
58.0%
OT
33.3%
52.6%
Final 5 min
35.9%
59.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
42.4%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Dec 8, 2017 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Dec 8, 2017 | 2 | 09:44 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |