Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bonino wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 47.6% vs Gaustad 55.9% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 76.9%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 87.2%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 67.5%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Bonino
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bonino
Gaustad
Last 5: Bonino 3-2 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
3
0
Bonino
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Bonino
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (926)
57.7% (821)
-9.5%
Power Play
48.6% (109)
56.3% (16)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (210)
52.3% (260)
-9.0%
On even strength, Gaustad has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Bonino is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (725).
Bonino shoots left. Gaustad is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Home / Away
Bonino
Gaustad
Home
47.8% (653)
58.9% (577)
Away
47.0% (592)
53.7% (520)
By Period
Bonino
Gaustad
P1
45.9%
53.1%
P2
47.0%
57.9%
P3
49.4%
57.8%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
47.4%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2015 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 31, 2015 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Mar 31, 2015 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 2, 2014 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 2, 2014 | 1 | 03:49 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |