Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spaling on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Spaling 49.9% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Spaling leads 15-7 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Spaling 54.3%
Defensive zone
Spaling 75.9%
Neutral zone
Spaling 64.4%
Result
Nick Spaling favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Duchene
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
15
(22 meetings)
7
15
Duchene
Spaling
Last 10: Duchene 2-8 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
3
5
Duchene
Spaling
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
2
4
Duchene
Spaling
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spaling
2
6
Duchene
Spaling
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
50.5% (2,263)
+3.4%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
43.4% (53)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
48.0% (498)
+1.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Spaling is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,835).
Home / Away
Duchene
Spaling
Home
55.6% (6,411)
51.9% (1,437)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
47.8% (1,378)
By Period
Duchene
Spaling
P1
54.5%
49.8%
P2
54.5%
48.3%
P3
53.4%
52.0%
OT
56.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2013 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 2 | 05:17 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 2 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 19:10 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Oct 4, 2013 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 18, 2013 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 2 | 15:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 3 | 05:14 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 3 | 11:47 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 1 | 04:16 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 1 | 00:38 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Nick Spaling |