Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spaling on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spaling wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spaling 46.9% vs Kesler 55.6% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 62.4%
Defensive zone
Kesler 62.9%
Neutral zone
Kesler 53.2%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Spaling
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Spaling
Kesler
Last 9: Spaling 5-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Spaling
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spaling
3
1
Spaling
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spaling
2
1
Spaling
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spaling
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (419)
57.6% (231)
-9.2%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
65.5% (29)
-35.5%
Penalty Kill
32.1% (53)
51.2% (43)
-19.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +35.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Spaling is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (128).
Spaling shoots left. Kesler is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Spaling
Kesler
Home
52.2% (251)
58.8% (114)
Away
39.8% (231)
56.6% (189)
By Period
Spaling
Kesler
P1
40.6%
60.8%
P2
43.9%
60.0%
P3
54.3%
52.5%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
46.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2013 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Apr 15, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 15, 2013 | 1 | 11:37 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Apr 15, 2013 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 15, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 22, 2013 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 22, 2013 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 22, 2013 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Feb 22, 2013 | 1 | 10:40 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |