Scouting Report
Nicklas Backstrom holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 44.7% vs Backstrom 50.4% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 88.8%
Defensive zone
Backstrom 69.5%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 69.7%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 81.1%
18.9%
81.1%
Ellis
Backstrom
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ellis
Backstrom
Last 5: Ellis 4-1 Backstrom
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
3
0
Ellis
Backstrom
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Backstrom
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
0
1
Ellis
Backstrom
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Backstrom
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (129)
49.0% (1,137)
-7.1%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
59.8% (194)
-59.8%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (34)
48.8% (84)
-4.7%
On power play, Backstrom has a +59.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backstrom shoots left. Ellis is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (114).
Ellis shoots left. Backstrom is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (927).
Home / Away
Ellis
Backstrom
Home
39.6% (53)
52.9% (735)
Away
42.5% (113)
47.8% (680)
By Period
Ellis
Backstrom
P1
40.7%
51.1%
P2
46.0%
47.2%
P3
34.9%
52.9%
OT
100.0%
53.2%
Final 5 min
36.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
41.6%
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2014 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 2 | 12:42 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 29, 2013 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |