Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 44.9% vs Bergeron 56.2% (-12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 56.9%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 83.7%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 69.2%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Backes
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backes
Bergeron
Last 5: Backes 3-2 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Bergeron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
1
Backes
Bergeron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Bergeron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (819)
57.3% (1,041)
-12.0%
Power Play
42.1% (190)
60.4% (149)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
51.3% (234)
-10.8%
On power play, Bergeron has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Backes is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (231).
Backes shoots right. Bergeron is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (460).
Home / Away
Backes
Bergeron
Home
42.9% (581)
59.8% (682)
Away
46.1% (557)
53.8% (757)
By Period
Backes
Bergeron
P1
40.1%
58.2%
P2
47.3%
58.1%
P3
45.1%
54.5%
OT
57.1%
42.1%
Final 5 min
40.5%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2010 | OT | 00:44 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 2 | 19:49 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 2 | 03:23 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 1 | 11:14 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |