Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ellis wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 48.5% vs Bergeron 58.8% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ellis 83.1%
Defensive zone
Ellis 81.9%
Neutral zone
Ellis 82.7%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Ellis
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ellis
Bergeron
Last 5: Ellis 1-4 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
1
0
Ellis
Bergeron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
3
Ellis
Bergeron
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
1
Ellis
Bergeron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (223)
61.6% (1,186)
-13.6%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
52.2% (201)
-52.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
54.6% (240)
-4.6%
On power play, Bergeron has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Ellis is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Ellis shoots left. Bergeron is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,127).
Home / Away
Ellis
Bergeron
Home
51.4% (107)
61.7% (828)
Away
45.3% (137)
56.8% (813)
By Period
Ellis
Bergeron
P1
46.7%
58.5%
P2
47.3%
61.8%
P3
50.8%
57.8%
Final 5 min
43.9%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2012 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 15:49 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 2 | 08:58 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |