Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bergeron wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bergeron 56.8% vs Smith 48.2% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 56.0%
Defensive zone
Smith 60.8%
Neutral zone
Smith 54.9%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Bergeron
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bergeron
Smith
Last 5: Bergeron 2-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
1
0
Bergeron
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
3
Bergeron
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bergeron
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (972)
49.7% (485)
+8.7%
Power Play
53.4% (221)
46.8% (47)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (175)
38.6% (88)
+17.4%
On penalty kill, Bergeron has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Bergeron is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (912).
Bergeron shoots right. Smith is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Bergeron
Smith
Home
59.0% (712)
48.7% (310)
Away
55.5% (656)
47.1% (310)
By Period
Bergeron
Smith
P1
59.1%
45.8%
P2
60.2%
47.4%
P3
53.0%
50.5%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.0%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
57.3%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Apr 7, 2018 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Zack Smith |