Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marleau wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marleau 48.5% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marleau 74.5%
Defensive zone
Marleau 67.5%
Neutral zone
Marleau 69.4%
Result
Patrick Marleau favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Marleau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Marleau
O'Reilly
Last 8: Marleau 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Marleau
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Marleau
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Marleau
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marleau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (288)
52.7% (900)
-5.1%
Power Play
52.9% (34)
55.6% (225)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (34)
54.5% (209)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marleau is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (188).
Marleau shoots left. O'Reilly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Marleau
O'Reilly
Home
52.8% (125)
55.1% (693)
Away
45.5% (231)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Marleau
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
51.5%
P2
50.0%
54.7%
P3
46.5%
52.7%
OT
0.0%
69.7%
Final 5 min
41.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 18:32 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 07:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 1 | 12:03 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 1 | 08:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |