Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Elias 42.0% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Elias 73.6%
Defensive zone
Elias 69.6%
Neutral zone
Elias 69.7%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 69.7%
30.3%
69.7%
Nelson
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Elias
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Elias
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
0
4
Nelson
Elias
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
40.2% (562)
+1.9%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
49.3% (71)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
34.1% (44)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Nelson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (255).
Nelson shoots left. Elias is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (436).
Home / Away
Nelson
Elias
Home
43.8% (224)
39.9% (318)
Away
41.0% (227)
41.5% (359)
By Period
Nelson
Elias
P1
48.1%
42.0%
P2
38.4%
38.6%
P3
39.2%
41.1%
OT
75.0%
45.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
40.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2014 | OT | 03:18 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 06:14 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |