Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kelly wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Elias 40.5% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 68.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 83.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 81.8%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Kelly
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kelly
Elias
Last 7: Kelly 5-2 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Elias
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Elias
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
2
Kelly
Elias
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
39.3% (550)
+10.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
50.0% (60)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
27.0% (63)
+18.5%
On power play, Elias has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Kelly shoots left. Elias is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Kelly
Elias
Home
53.9% (297)
39.1% (335)
Away
42.1% (242)
39.1% (338)
By Period
Kelly
Elias
P1
45.4%
39.0%
P2
46.1%
35.4%
P3
54.3%
44.4%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
36.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
39.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2014 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 10, 2014 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 10, 2014 | 3 | 09:47 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 10, 2014 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 10, 2014 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 10, 2014 | 2 | 14:24 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 10, 2014 | 2 | 02:35 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |