Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Elias wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Elias 42.7% vs Connolly 47.3% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Elias 79.0%
Defensive zone
Elias 68.5%
Neutral zone
Elias 67.8%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Elias
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Elias
Connolly
Last 10: Elias 3-7 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
4
Elias
Connolly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
6
Elias
Connolly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
4
Elias
Connolly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Elias
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (2,591)
47.4% (1,307)
-5.1%
Power Play
48.4% (405)
50.2% (251)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
36.0% (367)
41.9% (186)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Elias is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,179).
Elias shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Elias
Connolly
Home
43.2% (1,683)
48.5% (870)
Away
41.7% (1,725)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Elias
Connolly
P1
41.1%
47.4%
P2
43.1%
47.7%
P3
43.0%
47.0%
OT
43.2%
37.8%
Final 5 min
40.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
42.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2012 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 2 | 19:35 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 2 | 15:04 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 2 | 11:10 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 2 | 00:50 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 21, 2012 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 3 | 12:22 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 3 | 19:11 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 2 | 13:13 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 2 | 09:01 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 2 | 06:04 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 1 | 19:42 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 1 | 15:50 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 2, 2011 | 1 | 13:04 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 01:31 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |