Scouting Report
Patrik Elias holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Elias wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Elias 44.5% vs Smith 45.9% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Elias 52.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 55.8%
Neutral zone
Elias 51.0%
Result
Trevor Smith favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Elias
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Elias
Smith
Last 7: Elias 4-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Elias
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
3
2
Elias
Smith
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Elias
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (954)
39.7% (68)
+5.0%
Power Play
46.9% (196)
66.7% (6)
-19.8%
Penalty Kill
36.1% (180)
25.0% (8)
+11.1%
On power play, Smith has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Elias is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (882).
Elias shoots left. Smith is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
Elias
Smith
Home
46.0% (692)
50.0% (44)
Away
42.2% (677)
30.8% (39)
By Period
Elias
Smith
P1
40.7%
41.9%
P2
46.8%
40.0%
P3
44.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
41.5%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
44.1%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2012 | 3 | 19:51 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 29, 2012 | 2 | 01:13 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 26, 2012 | 1 | 10:40 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 26, 2012 | 1 | 10:32 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Feb 26, 2012 | 1 | 04:22 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 26, 2012 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |