Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDonald wins 43.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 48.7% vs Gaustad 57.9% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 88.6%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 88.9%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 50.8%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
McDonald
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
McDonald
Gaustad
Last 7: McDonald 3-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
3
0
McDonald
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
4
McDonald
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (103)
59.8% (353)
-15.1%
Power Play
51.8% (85)
66.7% (15)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
58.0% (81)
-8.0%
On even strength, Gaustad has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. McDonald is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
McDonald shoots left. Gaustad is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
McDonald
Gaustad
Home
43.8% (105)
62.1% (195)
Away
52.7% (93)
57.9% (254)
By Period
McDonald
Gaustad
P1
47.4%
59.4%
P2
48.5%
58.1%
P3
44.9%
61.3%
OT
83.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 02:46 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 17:12 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 16:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |